Predictive modelling
Forward-looking models assess likely market movement over your typical contract-to-contract horizon, using historical volatility and current positioning rather than fixed assumptions.
Casthaven Equity applies predictive modelling to the cash reserves of UK freelancers and consultants, converting idle balances into risk-adjusted positions and reporting the outcome daily.
Each business morning, the platform issues a capital position summary covering current exposure, projected yield range, and any recommended rebalancing — ready before your first client call.
The Problem
High-income freelancing in the UK rarely produces a level income line. Project fees arrive in blocks, followed by gaps of uncertain length, and the natural response is to hold cash defensively in a current account until the next invoice clears.
That caution carries a cost. Capital left uninvested during a quiet month is not neutral — it is capital that could have been earning a risk-adjusted return elsewhere. Casthaven Equity treats this gap as a solvable allocation problem rather than an unavoidable feature of freelance income.
Removing emotional timing decisions from that process is the starting point: the system reads market and account data continuously, rather than reacting to headlines or mood.
Core Capabilities
The platform's role is to narrow the range of outcomes, not to chase the highest possible return. Each capability below works on a continuous feedback loop against your account data.
Forward-looking models assess likely market movement over your typical contract-to-contract horizon, using historical volatility and current positioning rather than fixed assumptions.
Every recommendation is weighted against downside exposure first. The engine favours capital preservation during periods of elevated uncertainty, widening allocation only as conditions stabilise.
Positions are reviewed against incoming data on a rolling basis, so a sudden invoice payment or a withdrawal request is absorbed into the model rather than treated as an exception.
Underlying the three capabilities is a single data pipeline: account balances, market feeds, and your stated liquidity requirements are ingested together, so the model always reflects what capital is actually available to deploy — not a theoretical balance.
Transparency
Financial opacity is one of the main reasons independent investors under-allocate. Casthaven Equity addresses this directly: every account receives a written report at the close of each trading day, covering what changed, why, and what is projected next.
Nothing in the report is retrospective marketing material — it reflects the same data the allocation engine itself acted on that day.
Methodology
No single signal drives a decision. The process below runs continuously, and each stage is logged so the reasoning behind a recommendation can always be reviewed after the fact.
Account balances, transaction history, and relevant market data are pulled in on a rolling basis, normalised into a single format the model can read consistently.
The engine runs scenario analysis against that data, estimating likely ranges of outcome for several allocation options rather than producing one fixed forecast.
The option with the strongest risk-adjusted profile for your stated liquidity needs is proposed, with the underlying reasoning included in the daily report.
Risk & Compliance
Client funds are held with regulated custodians rather than on Casthaven Equity's own balance sheet. The platform directs allocation instructions; it does not take custody of client cash or securities itself.
Liquidity requirements are set per account before any allocation begins. The model keeps a cash buffer sized to your stated withdrawal pattern, so a sudden client payment gap does not force an unfavourable sale.
Account and transaction data are encrypted in transit and at rest, with access limited to the systems required to generate your daily report. Data relating to UK-based accounts is processed within UK and EEA infrastructure.
Recommendations are generated algorithmically, but allocation parameters, risk limits, and liquidity rules are set by you and reviewed periodically. The system operates within those boundaries rather than overriding them.
Yes. Every daily report includes the triggering condition for any rebalancing action taken that day, so the reasoning is traceable rather than presented as a black box.
Connect an account to receive an initial allocation analysis and a sample of the daily reporting format, at no obligation to proceed.
Typical onboarding: account linking the same day, first full report within one business day.